NFL Play-Off Picture: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two postseason berths are still up for grabs. Yet, a great deal more is at stake, such as the highly desired top seeds in each conference and four division titles.
NFL schedulers have produced a dramatic finale, with the final two play-off positions on the line in a pair of head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens game will secure the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are set as wildcard entrants.
Houston require a win and a Jacksonville loss to climb from fifth to third. Denver will secure the top seed with a win, but a loss could pave the way for the Patriots or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the #4 position. Notably, the Panthers could still claim the division even with a loss, contingent on other outcomes.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, however, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC earns a crucial first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
On the Wild Card round, the remaining six playoff teams compete: the second seed hosts the seventh, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the second round, the top seeds join the competition, facing the weakest surviving team. The conference title games are then hosted by the highest seed, highlighting the critical value of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match comes to a head in the final game of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth at stake, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
The Steelers have been inconsistent this season, while the Ravens started poorly but remain in contention. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' quarterback their MVP QB is questionable with a back injury.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for the Ravens in what promises to be a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the division title is on the line when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The winner claims the conference's #1 spot and the road to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup features an explosive San Francisco attack against a stingy Seattle defense. With QB their young passer returned, the 49ers have been the league's highest scorers. On the other hand, the Seahawks' defense is rated second best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' quarterback Sam Darnold must avoid mistakes that have haunted him this season. The team that wins this clash gains a massive edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this game with much momentum. Tampa Bay have dropped seven of eight, while Carolina have squandered chances to secure the title.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. The Buccaneers, the situation is trickier. Even with a victory, they need another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to steal the division crown.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a Chargers team likely to rest key players gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Denver defeat would give the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They require a win and losses by both Denver and New England to achieve an unlikely ascent to #1. More pressingly, a Jaguars loss could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the AFC South.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)